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The economic impact of the policy is substantial, especially if one considers that we are referring to the world’s largest producing country and its second largest consumer economy. For the luxury industries, for almost two decades the China has also been the engine for a period of almost uninterrupted growth. Could that be coming to an end?
Three months since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ramping up of the international economic sanctions regime against the Russian government and business sector, very little information about their impact has been released by the country’s dominant diamond producer, Alrosa.
As has been the case for 30 years now, with the exception of 2020 when it was canceled because of the COVID outbreak, the jewelry world will descend on Las Vegas next month for the JCK Show. And in contrast to 2021, which was a subdued affair attended mainly by Americans, expectations are high that this year things will return almost to normal.
For many in the luxury product industries, the Chinese consumer remains the knight on the white horse, spending more on luxury goods at home, even while he or she is restricted from traveling abroad because of COVID-related restrictions. But analysts are warning that the Chinese juggernaut may be faltering, or at the very least struggling to maintain the type of growth that it has become used to.
While it fell short of the predicted high estimate, “The Rock,” which is the largest white diamond to ever come up for auction, sold at Christie’s in Geneva on May 11 for $21.9 million. Pear-shaped and weighing 228.31-carats, about the size of an elongated golf ball, it was cut from rough mined in South Africa, and was previously worn as a lavish Cartier necklace.
Fancy color diamonds have dominated headlines over the past several months, with near record prices being paid at the spring auctions and celebrities getting in on the action. There was little surprise, therefore, when the Fancy Color Research Foundation (FCRF) reported that prices of fancy color diamonds continued 2021’s positive trend, rising by 1.0 percent across the board.
The story of Israel’s diamond industry is part and parcel with that of the state, developing from a handful of isolated workshops created by a immigrants from Holland and Belgium into one the world’s most important trading centers, and an anchor of the national economy.
It’s looking like a banner year for the laboratory-grown diamond sector, which could be one of the few jewelry industry categories to benefit from the current Ukraine crisis, and the consequent efforts by many in the industry to create daylight between themselves and the Russian rough producers.
A milestone was almost passed on April 27, 2022, but not quite. The 15.10-carat De Beers Blue, which as was reported earlier in this blog series is the the largest vivid fancy colored blue diamond ever to appear at auction, was sold Sotheby’s Pacific Place Gallery in Hong Kong for more than $57.4 million. While substantially above the pre-sale estimated high price of $48 million, it still was just short of the record.
Mother’s Day, which is scheduled to be celebrated in the United States on May 8, is being widely forecast as the next major jewelry gift-giving opportunity. According to the annual consumer survey conducted by the country’s National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics, total spending is expected to total $31.7 billion this year, up $3.6 billion from 2021’s record spending.
Alrosa can do little to keep the Russian war effort going or to stop it, but it will attract public attention. Two countries in particular will decide whether its goods continue flowing, and neither is European. The first is the United States and the second India.
Few of the branded cuts introduced after De Beers changed its distribution policy in 2000 survived, with the reason for their failure being that almost none of the inexperienced diamond manufacturers could make the capital investment necessary to launch and maintain a consumer brand. But branded cuts appear to be making a comeback, however not in the way that was envisioned 20 years ago.
By definition, an aphorism is as overgeneralized observation that still contains a kernel of truth. In the jewelry and diamond business, there are aphorisms that generalize about the characteristics of generational consumer groups, assuming that age alone is a predictor of buying inclination and behavior.
Why if you are celebrity with cash on hand and love in heart, should you make do with only one diamond, especially when your relationship is going into its second round? That’s the question that Ben Affleck asked himself, when considering how to express his feeling for his former and once again current fiancée, Jennifer Lopez.
First quarter data from the diamond industry does not yet show any marked impact from the current geopolitical situation, although the long-term results may still be difficult to gauge. Many of the results also cover the period prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the imposition of sanctions on rough diamond imports from Alrosa by the United States and Great Britain.
With the fallout being experienced by the war in the Ukraine, conclusive proof seems to be delivered up daily that, in the 21 Century, all events are interconnected. The Eastern European country, which is home to neither a single diamond mine or a diamond market of much significance, has nonetheless exposed the difficulties inherent in sourcing responsibly in the luxury industries.
One of the major influences on performance the jewelry industry over the years has been the Indian wedding seasons, typically running from October through December and then again in April and May. India celebrates between 10 million and 20 million weddings per year, of which about 80 percent are in the Hindu tradition. The Indian wedding business is estimated to be worth as much as $50 billion per annum, and gold jewelry and increasingly diamond and gemstone-set jewelry play a key role.
The auction house Christie’s has announced that a 228.31-carat pear-shaped diamond will lead the Geneva Magnificent Jewels sale on May 11, 2022, as part of its Christie’s Luxury Week. Called “The Rock,” its pre-sale estimate is between $20 million and $30 million.
Ahead of the 2022 NFL Superbowl, the company operating Facebook, Instagram and Whatsapp announced that following the football game it would be hosting a live virtual reality concert featuring the popular rock group Foo Fighters. For those fans who managed to attend, it must have been a surreal event – digitally present, while physically distant. It was a taste of what is to come, and entertainment is just part of the story.
In the metaverse, people will have a “virtual presence,” meaning that they will not be observing life in the digital dimension through a screen from the outside, but they will feel that they actually exist within it, as one does the real world. In the metaverse, they will be able to communicate with others in the same space, as one does physically in regular life.
After a torrid 2020 as a result of the worldwide COVID pandemic, 2021 saw a dramatic recovery of the luxury product market, and many expected more of the same in 2022. But with war in Ukraine, a belligerent Russia in the grip of sanctions, and China and Hong Kong seeing a dramatic rise in Omicron infections, analysts are no longer as confident.
Could this be a sign of what is to come? Informa Markets Jewellery has announced that Jewellery & Gem World (JGW), the world’s largest jewelry show, will be relocating from Hong Kong to Singapore this September. The move, the company stressed in its release, is a one-off special arrangement applicable only in 2022.
With sanctions limiting the exports of diamonds and other precious items from Russia, there has been less attention of what the economic blockade is doing within the country, which over past two decades has evolved into an important outlet for luxury products brands.
Like all other business sectors, the diamond industry continues to feel the aftershocks of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, and the imposition of a steadily escalating series of economic sanctions against Moscow, imposed both governments and voluntarily by private companies.
A detailed report appearing in Israel’s respected Ha’aretz daily revolved around a topic that is not often discussed in the diamond industry – intellectual property. The subject of the article was the country’s most renowned developer of technology for the sector, a company that is best known for devices to plan, analyze and grade rough and polished diamonds.